Freight Recession, Tariff Pressures Weigh on 3PL M&A Activity
Capstone’s latest 3PL M&A Update reports that merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has continued to face headwinds with prolonged freight recession pressures continuing to weigh on sector profitability. Uncertainty surrounding volatile trade policy has added new headwinds to existing pressures from low freight rates, excess freight capacity, and slow growing freight volumes. Companies with business models most heavily exposed to macroeconomic pressures have seen the softest M&A demand, while businesses with more customized and niche offerings have garnered the steadiest investor interest and deal activity to date.
Despite Freight market conditions beginning to show signs of improvement by the end of 2024, the uncertainties from the constantly shifting tariff landscape throughout 2025 have disappointingly stalled the positive momentum, keeping freight recession pressures intact for the foreseeable future. However, in contrast to other sectors within the Transportation & Logistics (T&L) industry, demand for 3PL services has been upheld by shippers seeking help navigating increasingly complex supply chain operations. This trend has been further solidified by the recent trade policy volatility that has added to these complexities and accelerated near- and friend-shoring activity as shippers, retailers, and manufacturers look to mitigate supply chain disruptions and costly import tariffs. Looking forward, rising adoption of artificial intelligence (AI)-enabled technologies will likely play an increasingly important role in determining sector leadership and profitability. This will likely provide long-term tailwinds for consolidation in highly fragmented segments including Freight Brokerage and Freight Forwarding.
Persistent, prolonged revenue pressure from the ongoing freight recession has continued to weigh on sector M&A year to date (YTD), with deal volumes falling 15.5% year-over-year (YOY) to 71 transactions announced or completed. This trend will likely carry on in the near-term as recent trade policy volatility has muted hopes for a sustained uptick in freight demand and rates. M&A has enabled 3PL players to boost network coverage, technology capabilities, and service offerings as retailers and shippers increasingly seek out support to navigate these complexities.
The time-critical Courier segment—with its business-to-business (B2B) focus, rapid response services, and specialized vertical offerings—has remained a bright spot for sector M&A activity to date. Between 2022 and 2024 there were 65 Courier segment deals; this represents a 35.6% increase compared to the prior three-year period. The segment has recorded an additional eight deals through YTD 2025. The recent momentum has been reflective of participants’ efforts to fortify profitability by expanding and diversifying logistics service capabilities towards operations with little macroeconomic exposure serving high-growth end market customers.
Also included in this report:
A breakdown of M&A activity from both strategic and financial buyers.
A review of key transactions headlining 3PL and Trucking M&A activity to date.
An analysis of the key M&A drivers and growth strategies driving accelerated investment activity in the Courier segment in 2025.
Capstone Partners’ Transportation & Logistics Investment Banking Team provides M&A, capital formation, and financial advisory services to the owners of middle market businesses in the T&L industries. Our team partners with leading mid-to-large sized 3PL businesses that serve growing end-markets. For more information on the 3PL M&A trends featured in this report or to speak with one of our Transportation & Logistics Investment Banking Team members about how to grow, value, and/or sell your company, contact us today to start a conversation.
