Print, Paper & Packaging Market Update – July 2026

Packaging Market M&A Skews Defensive as Buyers Navigate Limited Growth Visibility and Demand Pressure

U.S. Packaging market merger and acquisition (M&A) activity has remained subdued as financial sponsors and strategic buyers contend with a challenging demand backdrop shaped by pressured consumer spending and widespread macroeconomic uncertainty. Inflation and elevated debt servicing costs have tapered disposable income growth year to date (YTD), leaving companies reliant on price increases to generate top-line growth, while consumer purchasing volumes across packaged goods categories have declined as spending has shifted toward value-oriented and essential purchases. Increased private label penetration and cautious purchasing behavior have underscored this shift, translating into muted end market demand for consumer packaging and corrugated products while also limiting sellers’ growth visibility and tempering buyer willingness to underwrite aggressive valuations. As a result, transaction activity has skewed selective, with acquirers prioritizing resilient or growing end market niches, technology-forward packaging strategies, and opportunities to drive operational improvement. Strategic buyers, who have dominated the Packaging and Equipment spaces since COVID, have remained the most willing to entertain consolidation strategies, while financial sponsors have been more selective, looking for opportunities to improve operations or other special situations.

Strategic buyers continue to dominate the M&A markets for the Print and Paper sectors as investment themes focused on consolidation and its ability to drive operating improvements in the absence of revenue driven growth. Within that context, we have been seeing more than a few entrepreneurial producers who have developed either a technology forward product, the right distribution strategy, or the unique market niche that is driving above market growth. These will be the winners going forward.

Jonathan MishkinManaging Director, Capstone Partners

Differentiated Players Mitigate Consumer Spending Headwinds Plaguing the Packaging Market

Consumer spending pressures have continued to weigh on packaging demand, with behavioral changes compounding an already challenging macroeconomic environment. Notably, food and beverage packagers have faced incremental headwinds from the growing adoption of glycogen-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) weight-loss drugs. GLP-1 users on average consume 40% fewer calories, according to PwC’s analysis of data from consumer insights firm Numerator.¹ The impact on Food and Beverage sectors is anticipated to translate into a modest drag on projected demand and sales volumes, reinforcing an environment of constrained growth. Packaging market exposure to these headwinds has been uneven: O-I Glass (NYSE:OI) has been more vulnerable given its concentration in beer, while Graphic Packaging (NYSE:GPK) has faced sensitivity tied to snack-oriented end markets as GLP-1s have reduced consumer appetites. To better address these structural shifts in consumption, food and beverage operators have outlined accelerated capital spending plans focused on modernizing formulations, broadening “better-for-you” offerings, and expanding convenience formats. Notably, General Mills (NYSE:GIS) is expected to undergo a year-over-year (YOY) step-up (+23%) in capital spending. While GLP-1 adoption has created headwinds for Food and Beverage end market consumption, the medication may create niche demand tailwinds for select suppliers in areas such as Apparel. Technology-enabled platforms including Avery Dennison’s (NYSE:AVY) Intelligent Labels business expects growth in 2026 to outpace the prior year, driven by mandatory retailer radio frequency identification (RFID) rollouts, where weight-loss-driven wardrobe refresh cycles could support incremental growth in apparel tagging, according to its Q1 2026 earnings call.² More broadly, pressured consumer purchasing power, elevated interest rates, and value-oriented shopping behavior have continued to constrain aggregate packaging volume growth, underpinning a selective demand environment.

Technology differentiation, niche end market targeting, and advantaged commercial strategies have enabled a subset of the Print, Paper & Packaging sector to consistently outperform peers despite muted growth in the space. In practice, these levers translate into either exposure to non-discretionary demand, higher switching costs, or structurally differentiated product offerings, which support more stable volumes and pricing power. For example, Silgan’s (NYSE:SLGN) high-margin dispensing and specialty closures businesses have benefited from proprietary dispensing technologies and deep customer integration, insulating performance by serving premium, non-discretionary categories. Similarly, Amcor’s (NYSE:AMCR) strategic emphasis on Healthcare, Pet Food, and Beauty reflects a deliberate portfolio tilt toward resilient, necessity-driven end markets, while Richards Group’s (TSX:RIC) pivot toward healthcare original equipment manufacturer (OEM) packaging introduces embedded product solutions with regulatory and customer-specific requirements—both of which have supported relative volume stability, according to their respective earnings reports.^3,4

By contrast, many sustainability‑oriented packaging strategies—while thematically aligned—have struggled to drive comparable outperformance where offerings lack clear cost parity or functional differentiation versus legacy substrates. As a result, operators delivering mission-critical, regulation-driven, or customer-embedded solutions have been better positioned to sustain margin resilience relative to broader packaging peers, even as baseline volumes remain pressured.

Packaging has remained capital-intensive and inherently cyclical, emphasizing the importance of scale, operational expertise, and balance sheet flexibility. These structural dynamics have favored large incumbent producers, who are better equipped to exploit differentiated capabilities, solidifying customer relationships, and scale advantaged commercial models through the cycle. Deep customer integration, long-term supply agreements, and broad service offerings further strengthen incumbents’ ability to preserve share and navigate demand volatility. Scale, in this context, functions as both a strategic enabler of the above levers and a defensive mechanism, allowing leading operators to consolidate weaker competitors and emerge stronger as demand stabilizes.

Print, Paper & Packaging M&A Activity Slows in 2026 as Buyers Favor Defensive Strategies

Packaging market participants have continued to exercise caution in M&A pursuits amid the macroeconomic headwinds and subdued demand. Through YTD 2026, the sector has recorded 59 transactions announced or completed; a 21.3% YOY drop. This represents a contrast to the broader Industrials industry, which recorded a 12.1% rise compared to the prior year period. Private, public, and hybrid (sponsor-owned) buyers have underpinned packaging M&A, comprising 83.1% of all M&A activity, and have emerged as the dominant buyer archetype since Covid. In an environment of very mature top line performance, those acquirers most capable of realizing meaningful synergies (cost savings) have maintained a clear advantage over sponsors focused on building scalable standalone platforms. However, these buyer groups have seen the biggest retreat in transaction volumes. Private strategic transactions have totaled 26 deals to date, a 29.7% retreat from prior year levels, while hybrid deals have fallen 26.6% to 19 deals YTD. Public strategic volume has increased by one deal, and private equity (PE) platforms have ticked one deal lower to 10 in YTD. This shift has reflected buyers’ preference for defensive strategies and scale-driven consolidation that can drive operational improvements. The Packaging market’s muted M&A environment has also underscored a broader trend of cautious capital allocation as companies remain focused on navigating uncertain conditions and preserving financial flexibility until growth visibility improves.

Print & Packaging Equipment segment transaction volume has moderated to eight deals through YTD 2026, down from 12 over the prior year period in 2025. The YOY decline from 2025 likely reflects a normalization following a period of elevated strategic consolidation, perhaps due to many of the actionable platform and bolt-on targets being absorbed during the prior year’s deal wave. For both makers of packaging and packaging equipment, the drop in 2026 deal volume have reflected seller hesitation until financial results return to more normalized levels (many viewed 2025 as closer to a trough).  Additionally, input cost inflation—particularly in steel, electronics, and precision components—has compressed equipment manufacturer margins and complicated buyer underwriting, while elevated interest rates have continued to raise the cost of financing larger capital equipment transactions. The improvement relative to 2024 has suggested that underlying consolidation drivers remain intact. Aging installed bases, customer demand for automation and sustainability-driven converting technologies, and the ongoing shift toward digital and hybrid printing platforms have created compelling acquisition rationales.

As the chart above illustrates, strategic buyers, public, private or sponsor-owned represented 83.1% of deals closed YTD in 2026, roughly consistent with what we have seen since the pandemic. Despite subdued transaction volumes, average deal values in the Print, Paper & Packaging market have remained robust YTD, underscoring that buyers have continued to target high-quality assets and resilient business models even amid challenging macroeconomic conditions. The enterprise value paid for packaging players has averaged $164.4 million in YTD 2026, up from $60.4 million in the prior year period. Several notable deals have been characterized by strategic acquirers prioritizing operational improvements, resulting in strong enterprise values for leading targets. However, this resilience in deal value has not translated into sustained valuation multiples across the sector. The average EV/EBITDA multiple for packaging transactions has fallen to 6.5x YTD, marking a steep decline from 10.3x in full-year 2025 and nearly three turns below the historical average of 9.3x (2018-YTD 2026). This drop has underscored heightened buyer caution and reduced growth visibility, as persistent macroeconomic headwinds, subdued demand, and constrained consumer spending have prompted acquirers to prioritize disciplined capital allocation and value-oriented opportunities. Lower deal multiples have reflected both sellers’ tempered expectations and buyers’ preference for defensive, resilient assets amid ongoing uncertainty. As the sector continues to navigate these challenges, the recalibration of valuations is likely to shape the profile of future transactions, favoring strategic investments in niche markets and operational improvements over large-scale consolidations.

Corrugated Box Makers Navigate Cyclicality Through Capacity Discipline

Corrugated box manufacturers have long been among the most economically sensitive participants in the packaging ecosystem, with demand closely linked to goods consumption and industrial activity. North American box shipments dropped approximately 1.9% YOY in Q1 2026, reflecting continued consumer trade-downs toward essentials, according to Bloomberg Intelligence contributor Ryan Fox in a Packaging Dive article.⁵ Additionally, containerboard production fell 8% YOY amid the large number of North American facility closures announced in 2025 that resulted in a historic ~10% cut in industrywide production capacity. Notwithstanding these headwinds, several recent and significant data points have suggested a recovery in manufacturing activity. These broader manufacturing indicators have pointed to a mixed but gradually stabilizing demand environment. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) registered 53.3 in June 2026, up from 49 in June 2025 and remaining near the highest levels recorded since 2022, according to the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Index report.⁶ The New Orders Index registered 56.0 in June, remaining firmly in expansion territory despite easing slightly from 56.8 in May, while the Supplier Deliveries Index measured 57.4, down from 60.6 in May but still indicating lengthening delivery times and sustained supply chain tightness. Both metrics remained above the 50-point threshold that separates expansion from contraction, underscoring continued strength in manufacturing demand and activity. Bloomberg’s Green Markets Box Report noted that from December 2025 to April 2026, lead times for finished boxes increased from seven days to nine days, according to an April 2026 report.⁷ Box producers’ demand outlook increased from a 1% contraction to 2.9% expansion from January 2026 to July 2026. Notably, input costs rose at the fastest pace since late 2021, driven in part by higher oil and diesel prices linked to Middle East conflict, creating additional margin pressure across the value chain. The sector has nonetheless shown early signs of stabilization driven by inventory normalization and capacity rationalization, while the sharp drawdown in containerboard inventories suggests improved supply discipline, pushing true demand-to-capacity balances higher even in a slow-volume environment. Large, vertically integrated producers such as Packaging Corporation of America (NYSE:PKG), International Paper (NYSE:IP), and Smurfit Westrock (NYSE:SW) have leveraged scale, integration, and operational expertise to manage pricing through the downturn via price actions, mill closures, and cost-cutting initiatives. While the Corrugated market has remained cyclical, tighter supply, improved pricing execution, and e-commerce-driven format innovation have positioned the space for gradual recovery as consumption trends stabilize. Several notable Print, Paper & Packaging market transactions in the Corrugated & Paper segment are highlighted below.

• International Paper to Acquire NORPAC (May 2026, Undisclosed) – In April 2026, International Paper (IP) announced the acquisition of Washington-based paper mill operator North Pacific Paper Co. (NORPAC), valued at $360 million. One Rock Capital Partners is divesting its nearly decade-long stake in NORPAC, a company originally founded in 1976 as a joint venture between Nippon Paper Industries and Weyerhauser, with a legacy focus on newsprint. In response to shifting market dynamics, including China’s National Sword policy, NORPAC expanded its Longview, Washington facility in 2021 to produce recycled paper for Packaging and other markets. The acquisition will complement IP’s existing mill system, enhance flexibility, and reduce costs, adding to its network of packaging production and recycling sites in Washington and Oregon. More recently, IP acquired Delmarva Corrugated Packaging, a converting facility in Dover, Delaware, further extending its East Coast box plant footprint and regional service capabilities. Since CEO Andy Silvernail joined in 2024, IP has undergone a significant transformation, closing facilities and laying off over 5,400 employees, according to a Packaging Dive deal announcement.⁸

Beyond footprint optimization, IP has actively reshaped its portfolio to become a pure-play packaging company. The firm completed the $1.5 billion sale of its Global Cellulose Fibers business to American Industrial Partners (AIP) in January 2026 and announced plans to spin off its EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) Packaging business—comprising DS Smith, the European containerboard leader it acquired just one year earlier (January 2025, $9.9 billion, 1.1x EV/Revenue, 7.2x EV/EBITDA) into a separate publicly traded company within 12 to 15 months. Executives indicated that downsizing would taper in 2026 as IP pivots toward strategic investments, including plans to split into two geographically distinct public companies. Capital expenditures are projected at $1.9 billion annually through 2027, with a focus on upgrading the box plant network, according to the deal announcement. In March 2026, IP announced a $225 million investment in a new 468,000-square-foot box plant in Mississippi, set to begin construction in June and operations in late 2027. Additional capacity is expected from a greenfield plant in Iowa, slated to come online later this year.

• Capstone Partners Advises Key Container on its Investment from Altamont Capital Partners (March 2026, Undisclosed) – TM Capital, a division of Capstone Partners, advised Key Container on its investment from Altamont Capital Partners in March 2026. Key Container provides specialty and custom corrugated packaging products and services to customers across the Northeast. The company, founded in 1959 by Jack Sundel and his son-in-law Richard Strauss, is now led by David Strauss, Richard’s son. In addition, David’s son, Matthew, serves as Sales Manager and offers customers a fourth generation of family leadership. Backed by Altamont’s resources and sector expertise, David will continue to lead Key Container as President to expand its regional presence. Key Container has succeeded by focusing on entrepreneurial, fast-growing, small- to medium-sized businesses in the New England region and by mastering the consistent production of high-quality and cost-effective corrugated packaging.

“We are excited to partner with Altamont as we continue to support our customers with their packaging needs. Altamont’s proven growth playbooks and experts within their network will strengthen existing operations, enable new customer relationships and future expansion, and support our goal of providing our customers with the whole package,” said David Strauss, President of Key Container, in a press release.⁹

• Kingswood Capital Management Acquires Coveris Management’s Business Unit Paper (February 2026, Undisclosed) – Kingswood Capital Management acquired Business Unit Paper (BU Paper) from Coveris, a global manufacturer of paper and plastic packaging solutions. BU Paper will be rebranded Paragon Print and Packaging (Paragon), restoring the unit’s original name. Jo Ormrod, COO, will serve as Paragon’s CEO, and the existing company management will remain in place. Paragon produces high-quality, sustainable paper-based packaging solutions, including key end markets such as Food, Household, and Personal Care. The company specializes in products like self-adhesive and linerless labels, lined board, cartons, and trays using eco-friendly materials.

“We were impressed with Paragon’s market position, strong product lineup, and exceptional business leadership. The Paragon brand has strong recognition across the U.K. and continental Europe for reliability and excellence, and as companies around the world seek more sustainable packaging solutions, we see tremendous opportunities for growth for the company,” said Andrew Kovach, Managing Director at Kingswood, according to a press release.¹⁰

The domestic Print, Paper & Packaging market has continued to operate in a constrained growth environment as pressured consumer spending, elevated interest rates, and structural shifts—including value-oriented purchasing, private label penetration, and GLP-1-driven changes in food consumption—have suppressed underlying volume demand across key end markets. Destocking headwinds have largely abated and capital spending among large food and beverage customers has re-accelerated toward execution-focused investments, but overall growth visibility remains limited, reinforcing cautious buyer behavior and a defensive posture in packaging M&A. Within this backdrop, performance across the sector has diverged meaningfully as a subset of companies have achieved above-market growth by leveraging differentiated technologies, defensible exposure to non-discretionary and regulated niches, and deeply embedded distribution and supply chain solutions. The sector’s long-term winners are expected to skew toward large, incumbent players, reflecting packaging’s capital-intensive and cyclical nature, high barriers to entry, and reliance on scale, operational discipline, and durable customer relationships to preserve margins, rationalize capacity, and selectively invest through downturns. Together, these dynamics have shaped a selective, defense-oriented market environment—both operationally and transactionally—where resilience, differentiation, and scale increasingly determine relative outperformance.

To discuss the current sector headwinds and characteristics of insulated business models, provide an update on your business, or learn about Capstone’s wide range of advisory services and Print, Paper & Packaging market knowledge, please contact us.

Learn more about select transactions completed by Capstone’s TM Capital division, including Key Container, UP Paper, Magnum Systems, and Contiweb.

Neve Adler, Associate, was the lead Market Intelligence contributor to this article.

Endnotes

1. PWC, “GLP-1 Consumer Trends 2026,” pwc.com/us/en/industries/consumer-markets/library/glp-1-consumer-trends.html, accessed May 6, 2026.

2. Avery Dennison, “Q1 2026 Avery Dennison Earnings Conference Call,” q4inc.com/attendee/433331689, accessed May 7, 2026.

3. Amcor, “Amcor Plc Third Quarter Results 2026,” ctfassets.net/f7tuyt85vtoa/7fM6ywHE27HJ6pQlj6kLn3/ae3d2f94b52fa452d695e7989c0ade87/3Q26_Transcript_FINAL.pdf, accessed May 21, 2026.

4. Richards Group, “Q1 Quarterly Report 2026,” shopify.com/s/files/1/0841/2214/0865/files/IR_-_Richards_Group_Q1_2026_Quarterly_Report.pdf?v=1777852669, accessed May 21, 2026.

5. Packaging Dive, “Containerboard production charts steepest decline in years in Q1,” com/news/containerboard-production-q1-2026-afpa-fba-fiber-box/818650/, accessed May 6, 2026.

6. Trading Economic, “United States ISM Manufacturing PMI,” com/united-states/business-confidence, accessed May 19, 2026.

7. Green Markets Box Report, “Corrugated and Boxboard Market Prices, Trends, Production Cost Indices and More,” green-markets.com/box/Index.html, accessed May 20, 2026.

8. Packaging Dive, “International Paper to acquire North Pacific Paper Co. for $360M,” com/news/international-paper-acquire-north-pacific-paper-containerboard/817755/, accessed May 6, 2026.

9. Altamont, “Altamont Capital Partners Invests in Key Container Corporation,” com/news/altamont-capital-partners-invests-in-key-container-corporation/, accessed May 6, 2026.

10. Business Wire, “Kingswood Capital Management Enters Into a Definitive Agreement to Acquire Coveris’ Paper Unit, Rebrands as Paragon Print and Packaging,” com/news/home/20260210206630/en/Kingswood-Capital-Management-Enters-Into-a-Definitive-Agreement-to-Acquire-Coveris-Paper-Unit-Rebrands-as-Paragon-Print-and-Packaging, accessed May 6, 2026.