Beverage Market Update – September 2025
Emerging Categories Uphold Sector Sales Despite Tariff Headwinds, Beverage Market M&A Activity Declines
The Beverage market has experienced significant disruption due to proposed tariffs on key import countries, stifling merger and acquisition (M&A) activity through year-to-date (YTD) 2025. Companies have instituted tariff mitigation strategies—such as altering packaging and stockpiling duty-free inventory—to stymie the impact on margins and product availability. Beverage consumption has grown at modest levels due to the broad market volatility with soft drink products outpacing alcoholic beverages. Emerging drink categories, such as Functional Soft Drinks, Non-Alcoholic Beer & Spirits, and Hemp-Infused Beverages, have provided ample room for growth in the sector. These categories will likely bolster sales and M&A activity in the Beverage market through the mid- to long-term.
Globalization is undergoing radical changes, making it critical for beverage companies to develop strategies to navigate these shifts and build a more resilient, agile supply chain to effectively compete in today’s tariff environment.
Beverage Sales Grow, Consumer Interest in Functional Beverages and Non-Alcoholic Alternatives Continues to Accelerate
The Beverage sector has continued to expand through 2025 on the back of resilient household balance sheets, rising disposable income, and shifting, growth-stimulating consumption preferences. Capstone’s Alcoholic Beverage and Non-Alcoholic Beverage Public Company indices have recorded average last twelve-month (LTM) revenue growth of 1.7% and 5.4%, respectively, as of July 31, 2025. The shift in consumer preferences toward moderated alcohol consumption has benefited Non-Alcoholic Beverage segment participants, driving outsized revenue growth in contrast to Alcoholic segment counterparts. Consumers, particularly younger generations, have gravitated toward better-for-you (BFY) beverage options with functional benefits while simultaneously exploring low- or no-alcohol alternatives to traditional spirits, beer, and wine. Searches for “non-alcoholic drink”, “non-alcoholic beer”, “mocktail”, and “alcohol health impact” have all reached peak popularity in the past two years, according to Google Trends.1 This shifting consumption landscape—characterized by heightened interest in functional soft drinks and non-alcoholic alternatives—has supported Beverage sector participants by creating new, high-growth category expansion opportunities.
First-movers in the nascent category of Non-Alcoholic Beer have continued to see sales acceleration to date. Notably, Heineken’s (ENXTAM:HEIA) zero-alcohol beer alternative, Heineken 0.0, saw 10% year-over-year (YOY) sales volume growth in fiscal 2024, according to its earnings release.2 After launching in 2017, Heineken 0.0’s perpetual double-digit volume growth has underscored the strength of rising consumer demand for non-alcoholic beverage alternatives. Moreover, Anheuser-Busch InBev’s (NYSE:BUD) international sales of zero proof Corona Cero, which launched in 2022, delivered triple-digit volume growth in fiscal 2024, according to the company’s annual report.3 Alcoholic beverage companies have also moved beyond launching non-alcoholic alternatives of traditional products. These companies have focused on strategic pivots into soft drinks and functional beverages for additional revenue growth opportunities. In July 2024, Danish brewer Carlsberg (CPSE:CARL B) acquired U.K. soft drink operator, Britvic, through its Carlsberg UK subsidiary to form Carlsberg Britvic ($5.1 billion, 2.1x EV/Revenue, 14.8x EV/EBITDA). The deal rationale centered around increased exposure to the attractive Soft Drinks category in addition to synergies with Carlsberg’s beer portfolio. Furthermore, alcoholic beverage company Constellation Brands (NYSE:STZ) invested in Hiyo, a producer of functional soft drinks with ingredients such as adaptogens, nootropics, and botanicals, through a Series A funding round in February 2025. Hiyo raised $19 million in the round for a post-money valuation of $95 million. Following a similar deal rationale as Carlsberg, Constellation Brands cited robust revenue synergies building a non-alcoholic and functional beverage portfolio as well as the strength of consumer demand in the Functional Non-Alcoholic space. Cannabis-Infused Beverages has also emerged as a high-growth category with consumers increasingly treating low-dose tetrahydrocannabinol (THC) as an alternative to beer for relaxation and celebratory occasions. The U.S. Hemp-Derived THC Beverage market reached ~$239 million in 2023 and is expected to reach $4.1 billion by 2028, according to Euromonitor.2 Brands and distributors have taken notice and looked to hedge their alcoholic beverage exposure with offerings in this category and fill gaps in their portfolio. For example, Tilray Brands (Nasdaq:TLRY) leveraged its national beer network to place hemp-derived THC drinks in 1,300 U.S. outlets across 13 states in its fiscal Q4 2025, according to the company’s earnings call.5 Continued capital investments driven by the systemic shift in consumer preferences toward these emerging drink categories are expected to drive Beverage sector growth in the near- and mid-term.
Business Owners Focus on Tariff Mitigation, Domestic Assets Expect Heightened Growth and Acquisition Interest
The uncertain and shifting tariff agenda has reverberated throughout the beverage supply chain in the first half of 2025 with key inputs subject to new duties. A blanket 10% ad-valorem duty has impacted all beverage-related imports since going into effect on April 2, 2025, according to the White House.6 Targeted surcharges include a 25% global tariff on steel and aluminum, effective on March 12.7 This duty expanded to aluminum derivative products including imported beer and empty aluminum cans (effective April 4) and doubled to 50%, effective June 4, according to the Federal Registrar and White House.8,9 Of note, the 50% duty and expanded application to imported beer and empty aluminum cans applies to Canadian and Mexican imports previously exempt under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Additional reciprocal tariffs include 15% levies on European Union and Japanese imports and a 25% tariff on South Korean imports, all effective August 1, though they remain subject to change as exemption discussions continue.10,11,12 These tariffs are expected to impact Italian wine, Japanese whiskey and sake, Korean soju, and other wine and spirit products. Retaliatory tariffs on U.S. exports to the European Union, including spirits, have been suspended through February 2026, underscoring the fluidity and widespread impact of the reorganized trade relationships, according to the Wall Street Journal.13
Tariff policy developments have necessitated reassessments of sector participants’ supply chains and stock keeping units (SKUs). Importers—specifically those anchored to cross-border supply chains in aluminum-heavy SKUs—have seen the greatest exposure to input cost inflation and margin pressure. However, business owners have already begun implementing tariff mitigation tactics to maintain financials and optimal capital structures. Beverage importers have front-run tariff implementations by pre-shipping inventory before duties are exercised, buying six to nine months of pricing leeway. U.K.-based Diageo (LSE:DGE) expects to mitigate 50% of its annualized tariff impact by leveraging such inventory tactics, as well as supply chain optimization and cost management initiatives before taking any pricing actions, according to its fiscal Q3 2025 Trading Statement.14 Notably, the company reported a 6.2% YOY increase in net sales in North America due to the pull-forward import scheme. Packaging has also emerged as a key lever to navigate the shifting tariff environment. Operators have turned to pack-price architecture strategies, shifting production to smaller pack sizes to defend sales volumes and bolster unit economics. This SKU structure can be a more accessible purchase for cash-strapped consumers as discretionary spending remains under pressure and credit card debt levels hover around all-time highs. Additionally, SKU packaging shifts away from tariff-exposed aluminum cans to bottles may offer some producers a reprieve. For example, Mexican lagers bottled in glass enter the U.S. without triggering the 50% surcharge the same product would receive if it was canned in aluminum based on the materials’ tariff rate as of July 23. A shift from cans to glass bottles will, however, incur additional weight-related shipping costs, increase breakage risk, draw higher storage and handling costs, slow production speeds, and offer less convenience to customers for on-the-go consumption, ultimately making the best course of action for beverage operators still unclear.
Diversification of supplier bases, nearshoring manufacturing, and local-for-local production trends have also helped insulate operators from tariff headwinds and spurred growth opportunities for U.S.-based producers. In January, Molson Coors (NYSE:TAP) acquired an 8.5% stake in U.K.-based Fevertree Drinks (AIM:FEVR) for $88 million as part of a broader strategic partnership, giving the U.S. producer exclusive domestic commercialization rights to its line of mixers and responsibility over production, marketing, sales, and distribution. “Fevertree sits at the intersection of beer and non-alc[oholic] and is often available in stores where beer is sold, so it perfectly complements our Beyond Beer and premiumization strategies, playing both in alcohol occasions and non-alc[oholic] occasions. We’re excited to welcome Fevertree into our portfolio as we work to reach more consumers and unlock growth in new channels and outlets across the U.S.,” said Michelle St. Jacques, Chief Commercial Officer at Molson Coors, in a press release.15
Joint ventures, such as that between Fevertree and Molson Coors, and strategic acquisitions may accelerate within the Beverage sector as nearshoring trends continue through the new tariff landscape. Those with local-for-local production capacity—the most effective tariff shield for sector participants—are expected to benefit from strong consumer demand for cheaper, domestic products and increased acquirer interest amid these tailwinds. Moreover, tariffs have opened the door for domestic producers to tap into previously import-dominated categories, such as Agave Spirits, and bring innovation, quality, and a U.S.-spin to heritage categories. The small, but growing, American Whiskey category has seen these tailwinds and remains well-positioned to capture market share in the shifting beverage supply chain landscape. Of note, the Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau (TTB) amended its distilled spirits standard of identity regulations to include American Single Malt Whiskey in January 2025, a designation that solidifies the category’s identity, ensures quality, and promotes global recognition—all changes that will likely further accelerate growth for these domestic distillers, according to the TTB.16 Capstone anticipates the tariff-induced price gaps between foreign importers and domestic producers to support above market growth for the latter group and accelerate M&A interest in operators with attractive, domestic assets.
M&A Activity in the Beverage Market Falls Amid Tariff-Induced Operating Environment Volatility
The clouded macroeconomic outlook has impacted M&A activity in the Beverage market to date, causing a mixed appetite for dealmaking among strategics and private equity (PE) buyers. Beverage M&A deal volume has declined 12.5% YOY to 98 transactions announced or completed in YTD 2025. The tariffs introduced on April 2 caused a second quarter slowdown in dealmaking activity. The Beverage sector saw 59 deals in Q1 2025 (+15.7% YOY) and just 39 transactions in Q2 2025, a YOY decline of 36.1%. Notably, tariff-induced headwinds have had a similar impact to M&A in the Consumer industry as a whole; Consumer industry M&A in Q2 2025 fell 32.2% YOY. Trade policy clarity will likely catalyze a broad re-opening of the M&A market across Consumer industry sectors, including the Beverage space. Headwinds aside, total disclosed deal value in the Beverage market to date has nearly eclipsed full-year 2024, reaching $5.7 billion with four of the 12 disclosed transactions seeing an enterprise value greater than $800 million. This indicates that despite the choppy operating environment, scale has remained paramount to inorganic growth strategies as business owners look to achieve greater purchasing power, solve supply chain bottlenecks, and ultimately use those advantages to drive revenue across a larger addressable market.
Private and public business owners have leveraged M&A as a means for portfolio expansion, pruning, and repositioning amid the shifting trade landscape and structural changes to consumer preferences. Strategic buyers have continued to comprise the majority (80.6%) of sector deal activity, though transaction volumes from this cohort have declined 9.2% YOY to 79 acquisitions. Private business owners have contributed 70 deals YTD compared to 76 in YTD 2024. Meanwhile, public buyer activity has declined by two transactions YOY to nine deals in YTD 2025. Despite the overall pullback, both public and private acquirers have remained active in the Soft Drinks segment, with deals from strategics targeting the segment doubling YOY to 16 transactions. High-growth brands in the space have continued to garner significant acquisition appetite. While high-growth brands have experienced elevated buyer interest amid the pressured discretionary spending environment, operators with supply chains largely insulated from tariffs or those with effective tariff mitigation initiatives will likely also attract buyers and see competitive sale processes. Divestitures have continued to provide eligible targets for the M&A market, largely driven by public companies looking to re-accelerate growth in core operations.
PE M&A activity in the sector has declined to 19 deals YTD compared to 25 in the prior year period. This dip is largely attributable to add-on transactions, which fell to 13 deals from 19 in YTD 2024. Platform deals have remained flat, with six direct investments in both YTD 2024 and YTD 2025. These platform deals have spanned the Soft Drinks (three), Wine & Spirits (two), and Coffee & Tea (one) segments. In accordance with historical trends, Soft Drinks and Wine & Spirits have remained the most active segments for sponsors in the Beverage market. The structural demand for PE engagement has remained. Limited partners’ pressure to see returns has continued to grow and PE dry powder has accrued to record levels, ripe for deployment. PE-backed company inventory has grown consistently as fund managers have attempted to wait out market turbulence for a more favorable exit environment. However, with pressure for distributions mounting, PE fund managers are expected to start mobilizing exits in the near- to mid-term. The Consumer industry as a whole has seen significant delays in exits. Of all PE-backed companies across industries held for five to 12 years—beyond normal exit timelines—approximately 19% operate in the Consumer industry, according to PitchBook’s Q2 2025 U.S. PE Breakdown report.17 As a result of the substantial portion of mature portfolio companies in the industry, the Beverage market and other Consumer sectors will likely see high-quality PE-backed assets come to market when a wider return to dealmaking comes to fruition.
Portfolio Pruning, High-Growth Brands Garner Strong Acquisition Interest Despite Overall Beverage Market M&A Decline
Strategic and PE buyers have expressed substantial interest in high-growth brands and soft drink businesses, manifesting in several large-scale deals YTD. Additionally, strategics with M&A appetite have capitalized on divestitures of business units or brands deemed non-core by management teams. Select transactions that have depicted Beverage market M&A trends in YTD are outlined below.
- The Wine Group Acquires Wine Brands and Production Facilities of Constellation Brands (April 2025, $900 Million) – In April 2025, The Wine Group acquired various wine brands and production facilities from Constellation Brands for an enterprise value of $900 million, building on its existing 125 portfolio brands, according to a press release.18 In Constellation’s divestment agreement, The Wine Group secured multiple mainstream wine brands, including Cook’s, J. Rogét, Meiomi, Robert Mondavi Private Selection, SIMI, and Woodbridge, along with 6,600 leased vineyard acres, according to a press release.19 Constellation’s divestiture aligns with its ongoing strategy to streamline its portfolio and focus on premium and ultra-premium offerings (e.g., Corona, Pacifico, Modelo, and High West Whiskey brands), further supporting the premiumization trend across the Beverage sector. “We are pleased to have completed this transaction and look forward to executing against our repositioned portfolio, focused exclusively on the higher-end that more closely aligns to consumer-led premiumization trends which we believe will enable us to help deliver improved performance within this segment of our business over time,“ mentioned Bill Newlands, President and CEO of Constellation Brand, in the press release.
- PepsiCo Acquires poppi (March 2025, $2.0 Billion) – PepsiCo acquired functional beverage company poppi for an enterprise value of $2.0 billion (March 2025). The deal has come to fruition amid shifting consumer sentiment trends, with increased demand for BFY products. Following its acquisition of Siete Foods in October 2024 ($1.2 billion), PepsiCo has continued to grow its portfolio to include healthier brands through the acquisition of poppi, adding the company’s low-sugar prebiotic soda to its offerings. “As we look to reorient our portfolio offerings to address white space consumer needs, the poppi brand’s unique intersection with wellness and culture is a perfect addition to our portfolio,” noted Ram Krishnan, CEO of PepsiCo Beverages U.S., in a press release.20
- Celsius Acquires Alani Nutrition (February 2025, $1.9 Billion, 3.2x EV/Revenue, 13.8x EV/EBITDA) – In February 2025, Celsius acquired Alani Nutrition for an enterprise value of $1.9 billion, equivalent to 3.2x EV/Revenue and 13.8x EV/EBITDA. While Celsius has historically targeted fitness-conscious Millennials and Gen X, Alani Nu primarily caters to Gen Z and female consumers. This acquisition creates a larger, more comprehensive BFY, functional lifestyle platform and is expected to strengthen Celsius’ position as a functional lifestyle brand by capitalizing on consumers’ growing demand for health-conscious products. “Together, we expect to broaden the availability of Alani Nu[trition]’s functional products to help more people achieve their wellness goals with great-tasting, functional product options at more moments throughout their lives,” said John Fiedly, Chairman and CEO of Celsius, in a press release.21 The deal has proved immediately accretive for Celsius’ top line as Celsius’ revenue jumped by $337.3 million YOY (+84%) in Q2 2025, $301.2 million of which was attributable to Alani Nu, according to the company’s earnings release.22
- Gryphon Advisors to Acquire Spindrift Beverage (January 2025, Undisclosed) – PE firm Gryphon Advisors announced its acquisition of sparkling water brand, Spindrift Beverage, for an undisclosed sum in January 2025. The acquisition is expected to support Spindrift’s continued expansion by leveraging Gryphon’s financial and operational expertise, alongside growing consumer demand for health-conscious beverage options. “This attention to quality underlies the company’s outsized share of growth across beverage categories—nearly tripling in size since 2020—and it’s what attracted us to invest in the business,” noted Ryan Fagan, Managing Director at Gryphon, in a press release.23
The Beverage market has continued to evolve in-line with systemic shifts in consumer preferences for functional beverages, non-alcoholic alternatives, and traditional alcoholic beer and spirits. The transition has opened significant opportunities for sector participants to grow both organically and inorganically through portfolio rebalancing and innovation. Tariff policy and supply chain reorganization will likely remain a focus for business owners with exposure to global production through year-end, positioning domestic, insulated brands and categories to take market share in the near-term. Capstone expects M&A activity to re-accelerate in Q4 2025 and 2026 as operators adjust to new tariff impacts and refocus on inorganic growth to build out realigned product portfolios.
To discuss emerging beverage consumption preferences, tariff impacts to the beverage supply chain, provide an update on your business, or learn about Capstone’s wide range of advisory services and Beverage market knowledge, please contact us.
Andrew Woolston, Associate, was the lead Market Intelligence contributor to this article.
Julianna Zelnhefer, Summer Intern, also served as a Market Intelligence contributor to this article.
Endnotes
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Euromonitor, “Fizz with a Buzz: The Rise of Cannabis Drinks in the US,” https://www.euromonitor.com/article/fizz-with-a-buzz-the-rise-of-cannabis-drinks-in-the-us, accessed August 8, 2025.
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Constellation Brands, “Constellation Brands Closes Wine Transaction with The Wine Group to Focus on a Portfolio of Exclusively Higher-Growth, Higher-Margin Brands,” https://www.cbrands.com/blogs/press-releases/constellation-brands-closes-wine-transaction-with-the-wine-group-to-focus-on-a-portfolio-of-exclusively-higher-growth-higher-margin-brands, accessed July 21, 2025.
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Celsius, “Celsius Holdings to Acquire Alani Nu, Creating a Leading Better-For-You, Functional Lifestyle Platform,” https://ir.celsiusholdingsinc.com/news/news-details/2025/Celsius-Holdings-to-Acquire-Alani-Nu-Creating-a-Leading-Better-For-You-Functional-Lifestyle-Platform/default.aspx, accessed July 21, 2025.
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